Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2025

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Collin Sexton

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics · Mar 21, 2025

Updated Mar 22, 2025 2:59 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-134/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has averaged 16.4 points per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 83rd percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric.
The most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Collin Sexton has sunk 3.5 free throws per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among all players in the league.
Collin Sexton will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to boost player performance for all stats.

Favors Under

The Jazz have been the 7th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA while playing at home this year.
The matchup against Boston is a tough one for field goals; when the Boston Celtics are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting SGs have compiled the 4th-lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (38.1%).
The Boston Celtics have played at the slowest tempo in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease plays for the Jazz.
The matchup against the Boston Celtics is a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a mere 2.0 free throws per game this year (6th-least in the NBA).

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