Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2025

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz · Mar 16, 2025

Updated Mar 17, 2025 2:59 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-122/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has attempted 16.8 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 2.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.
The fastest tempo offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Jazz.
The Jazz check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Collin Sexton has made 4.3 foul shots per game over the last 15 games, 0.9 more than he's converted overall this season.
The matchup vs. Minnesota may be a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted a massive 3.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Timberwolves are playing at home (6th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Collin Sexton places in the 76th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a colossal 2.2 fouls per game this year.
The Jazz rank as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year in terms of field goals.
The matchup against Minnesota is a hard one for three-point shots; when the Minnesota Timberwolves have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SGs have tallied the least treys per game in the NBA this year (1.3).
The Jazz are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Timberwolves).
Collin Sexton will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease player performance across the board.