Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Utah Jazz · Mar 7, 2025

Updated Mar 8, 2025 4:35 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-143/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has attempted 17.0 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games while playing on the road, 3.1 higher than he's attempted overall this year on the road.
Collin Sexton has attempted 6.7 3-point shots per game over the last 10 games while on the road, 1.5 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.
This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 15.6 shot attempts per game (most in the league) against the Raptors, making this a good matchup.
The 3rd-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games as the away team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Collin Sexton has averaged 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the highest-fouling players in the league (76th percentile).
In regard to field goals, the Utah Jazz's lackluster 40.4 converted shots per game settles in as the 8th-lowest in the league this year.
The Jazz will likely suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 7th-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Raptors).
Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting SGs have attempted 1.2 foul shots per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Toronto Raptors, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.
Collin Sexton will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally worsens player performance for all stats.