Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 12/30/2024

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Collin Sexton

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 30, 2024

Updated Dec 31, 2024 2:05 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has successfully made 8.6 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 2.4 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.
The Utah Jazz will likely get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play road offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Jazz rank 2nd-best in in the league as the home team with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a colossal 3.7 foul shots per game this year (3rd-most in the NBA).
Collin Sexton figures to see a spike in efficiency across the board considering holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

When it comes to offense, the Jazz's feeble 107.3 points per game while on their home court rates 4th-lowest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a tough one for 3-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled the least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA over the last 25 games (5.2).
The Utah Jazz have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home.
Collin Sexton has successfully made just 3.0 foul shots per game this season, a sizeable decrease from his 4.1 mark last season.

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