Collin Sexton Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2024

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Collin Sexton

NBA · Player Props

Collin Sexton

G · Utah Jazz

Points

Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers · Dec 28, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 2:45 AM EST

Analysis

Collin Sexton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Collin Sexton has converted 8.2 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 2.1 more than he's put through the net overall this season.
The matchup against Philadelphia is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Philadelphia 76ers are the visiting team, the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 4th-highest three percentage in the league this year (46.2%).
The 7th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Utah Jazz.
The Utah Jazz rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Philadelphia is a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a massive 4.9 foul shots per game this year when the Philadelphia 76ers are away from home (8th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The Jazz have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league at home this year.
The Jazz are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from being pitted against the least up-tempo pace offense in the league this year (the 76ers).
Compared to last year's 4.1 mark, Collin Sexton's free throws drained have fallen this year to 3.1 per game.

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