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Christian Braun

Christian Braun Points
Player Prop - 6/12/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Christian Braun Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+112/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The matchup against Miami is a strong one; when the Heat are on the road, they have allowed the 30th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (17.6).

The Denver Nuggets have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

While on the road, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Heat may be a strong one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.8 free throws per game over the last 20 games (30th-most in the NBA).

Christian Braun will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to raises stat production across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Christian Braun has made 14.3% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games, -17.3% lower than he's made from three over the course of the year.

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Nuggets.

Christian Braun has sunk 62.8% of his foul shot attempts while at home this year, ranking in the 18th percentile among all players in the NBA.

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been bad at getting to the free throw line: worst in the league this year, averaging just 22.3 foul shots per game.

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