Chris Paul Points - Player Prop Bet 1/19/2025

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Chris Paul

NBA · Player Props

Chris Paul

G · San Antonio Spurs

Points

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs · Jan 19, 2025

Updated Jan 19, 2025 9:39 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Paul Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chris Paul has sunk 2.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted from 3-point range over the course of the season.
Chris Paul has tallied 29.3 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 75th percentile.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, marking this as a positive matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Spurs check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
Chris Paul has converted 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.1 more than he's made overall this year while playing on the road.

Favors Under

Chris Paul has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The San Antonio Spurs rank as the 9th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA away from their home court this year.
The Spurs are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this contest from competing against the 4th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league this year (the Heat).
Chris Paul will likely see a decline in efficiency in all facets of the game considering playing away from home in this game.

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