Chris Paul Points - Player Prop Bet 11/14/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chris Paul

G · Golden State Warriors

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Nov 14, 2023

Updated Nov 15, 2023 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Paul Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have scored 24.5 points per game (28th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, marking this as a favorable matchup for offensive production.
The Warriors will likely get a boost in opportunities today from sharing the court with the 7th-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA this year (the Timberwolves).
The Golden State Warriors check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Without the home court advantage, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed the 7th-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.3 free throws per game (25th-most in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

Relative to last year's 11.5 rate, Chris Paul's field goal attempts have declined this year to 8.6 per game.
Chris Paul has successfully made 12.5% of his three-point shots when playing on the road this year, putting him in the 18th percentile among all players in the league.
In contrast to last season's 31.9 mark, Chris Paul's playing time has fallen this season to 26.6 minutes per game.
With respect to shooting, the Golden State Warriors's subpar 106.5 points per game while playing on the road places 3rd-lowest in the NBA this year.
The 6th-most lethargic tempo home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Golden State Warriors.