Chris Paul Points - Player Prop Bet 5/1/2023

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Chris Paul

NBA · Player Props

Chris Paul

G · Phoenix Suns

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · May 1, 2023

Updated May 2, 2023 1:41 AM EST

Analysis

Chris Paul Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chris Paul has attempted 14.6 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Chris Paul has converted 2.3 shots from downtown per game over the last 10 games, 0.7 higher than he's made overall this year.
Chris Paul has been on the court for 32.1 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 86th percentile.
The matchup vs. Denver is a good one for threes; when the Nuggets are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have put up the 27th-highest three rate in the league this year (37.2%).
The Phoenix Suns have played at the 10th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games on the road.

Favors Under

Chris Paul has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game when playing away from home this year, putting him in the 89th percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled when it comes to technicals.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should reduce possessions for the Suns.
The Nuggets have given up the 8th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Phoenix Suns have been poor at getting to the foul line on the road: 5th-worst in the league this year, drawing just 21.2 foul shot attempts per game.
Chris Paul will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to worsens player production in all stat categories.

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