Chet Holmgren Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 5/7/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 7, 2024

Updated May 8, 2024 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-141/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has totaled 6.4 defensive boards per game this year, putting him among the best players in the league by this metric: 96th percentile.
Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren measures in the 76th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 29.1 minutes per game while at home this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games with the home court advantage.
Chet Holmgren ought to see a spike in production for all stats considering owning the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has been called for 2.3 personal fouls per game playing at home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

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