Chet Holmgren Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 2:18 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +101 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has totaled 9.1 rebounds per game over the last 15 games, 1.4 more than he's totaled in all games this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren comes in at the 77th percentile for playing time, putting up a colossal 30.2 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the 6th-fastest pace away offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Houston Rockets).
Chet Holmgren will have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally improves player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's been called for in all games this season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Rockets have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (13.0) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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