Chet Holmgren Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/31/2023

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets · Dec 31, 2023

Updated Jan 1, 2024 12:14 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has compiled 5.4 defensive boards per game this year at home, ranking him among the best in the league by this metric over this stretch of games: 91st percentile.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 30.1 minutes per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 75th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The 4th-speediest pace home team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Chet Holmgren will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home tends to raise player performance for all stats.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren places in the 88th percentile for personal fouls, posting a colossal 2.7 fouls per game this year.
The Thunder will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this contest from competing against the 6th-most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Nets).
The Thunder rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 15 games when they are on their home court, opposing teams have collected 11.9 offensive boards per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Nets (saving possessions that can produce extra opportunities for offense).

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