Chet Holmgren Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2023

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 29, 2023

Updated Dec 30, 2023 2:19 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has averaged 7.2 defensive boards per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 97th percentile -- among the best in the league by this metric.
Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren measures in the 76th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 29.9 minutes per game this year.
The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the league with just 8.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Denver Nuggets have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court tends to reduce stat production for all stats.

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