Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/28/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 28, 2025

Updated May 28, 2025 8:49 PM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-275/+200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has tallied 14.2 points per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile -- one of the best in the NBA by this standard.
Chet Holmgren has sunk 53.1% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 5.8% more than he's made over the course of the season.
When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's impressive 126.2 points per game when playing at home rates best in the league over the last 25 games.
The Thunder have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the league playing at home this year.
Chet Holmgren has attempted 5.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this year at home.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Chet Holmgren registers in the 76th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a whopping 2.2 fouls per game this year.
The matchup vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves is a difficult one; they have given up the least points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a decline in possessions today from facing the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 25 games (the Timberwolves).
The Thunder check in as the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league with the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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