Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/26/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 26, 2025

Updated May 27, 2025 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-290/+210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ +200 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has logged 15.2 points per game this year, ranking him among the best players in the league by this metric: 82nd percentile.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 28.0 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 76th percentile.
The 6th-speediest tempo team in the league this year has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Thunder grade out 7th-best in in the NBA on the road with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 7 games.
Chet Holmgren has attempted 4.3 free throws per game this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has failed to make 4.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.1 higher than he's missed from three over the course of the year when playing on the road.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled 14.5 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, labeling this as a difficult matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games at home, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
As a team, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been bad at getting to the foul line: 9th-worst in the NBA this year with a measly 21.0 free throws per game.
This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 foul shots per game (9th-fewest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, making it tough to get to the foul line.