Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/22/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 22, 2025

Updated May 23, 2025 12:23 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-275/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren ranks in the 77th percentile, averaging a colossal 13.8 points per game when playing at home this year.
Chet Holmgren has sunk 55.0% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 8.0% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
When it comes to shooting, the Thunder's excellent 121.5 points per game settles in as the most in the league over the last 25 games.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play home team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Chet Holmgren has attempted 4.0 free throws per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has averaged 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the NBA (80th percentile).
This year, the other team's starting PFs have averaged 14.5 points per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Timberwolves, creating a hard matchup for offensive productivity.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 10thworst in in the league while playing at home with a mere 10.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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