Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/18/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · May 18, 2025

Updated May 18, 2025 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren measures in the 77th percentile, registering a massive 13.8 points per game at home this year.
In terms of offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's terrific 121.4 points per game comes in as the most in the league over the last 25 games.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 44.8% on threes (5th-best in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, making this a positive matchup.
The Thunder have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court.
Chet Holmgren has attempted 5.3 foul shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has successfully made a measly 46.4% of his field goals this season, quite a bit less than his 52.2 rate last season.
Chet Holmgren has committed 2.3 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 10th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Thunder.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 10thworst in in the NBA at home with only 10.6 offensive boards per game this year.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (least in the NBA).

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