Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/15/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 15, 2025

Updated May 16, 2025 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Chet Holmgren registers in the 82nd percentile, averaging a monstrous 15.1 points per game this year.
Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren places in the 76th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 28.1 minutes per game this year.
The 4th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 20 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark more chances for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 2nd-best in in the league away from their home court with 14.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.
Chet Holmgren has converted 4.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 higher than he's put through the net in all games this season away from home.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren comes in at the 76th percentile for personal fouls, registering a colossal 2.2 fouls per game on the road this year.
This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 3.7 3-point attempts per game (4th-fewest in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a difficult matchup.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 9th-most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).
As a team, the Thunder have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 8th-worst in the NBA this year, tallying a lowly 21.0 free throws per game.
The matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets is a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 2.6 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA).