Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/11/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 11, 2025

Updated May 11, 2025 7:34 PM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has attempted 5.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
Chet Holmgren has played 27.9 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 75th percentile.
The 2nd-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Thunder.
The Thunder rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 5.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 higher than he's sunk overall this season away from home.

Favors Under

This year, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled 3.7 three attempts per game (4th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, designating this as a hard matchup.
The Nuggets have played at the 7th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 10 games, which should reduce possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
As a team, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line: 8th-worst in the league this year, averaging a mere 20.9 free throws per game.
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (least in the league).
Chet Holmgren stands to suffer a drop-off in production in all facets of the game in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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