Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/9/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 9, 2025

Updated May 10, 2025 1:53 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has sunk 2.3 three-pointers per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's made from 3-point range overall this season.
The most up-tempo pace offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Thunder.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Thunder rank 8th-best in in the league with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 5.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 more than he's sunk overall this year when playing on the road.

Favors Under

This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 3.7 three attempts per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, identifying this as a tough matchup.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 8th-most lethargic pace team in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Nuggets).
As a team, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been bad at getting to the free-throw line: 9th-worst in the league this year, totaling just 20.9 free throw attempts per game.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA).
Chet Holmgren will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling tends to reduce stat production in all stat categories.

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