Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/5/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · May 5, 2025

Updated May 6, 2025 1:24 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has averaged 19.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.8 higher than he's averaged overall this year.
The matchup against Denver is a good one for three-point shots; when the Nuggets are the visiting squad, the opposing team's starting PFs have posted the 5th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (44.8%).
The 2nd-quickest pace team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren has converted 6.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 2.9 higher than he's made in all games this season.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has accumulated 2.2 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the most foul-whistled players in the NBA (76th percentile).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home court, which should reduce possessions for the Thunder.
As a team, the Thunder have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 5th-worst in the league this year with a lowly 20.6 foul shot attempts per game.
This year, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.6 foul shots per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, facing an uphill battle to draw fouls.

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