Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 25, 2025

Updated Mar 26, 2025 2:05 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has made 58.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 9.3% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year without the home court advantage.
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 2.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's converted in all games this season when playing away from home.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 52.6% on shots from the field (6th-best in the league) vs. the Kings, making this a good matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely experience a decrease in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Sacramento Kings).
In terms of drawing fouls, the Thunder's unimpressive 20.2 foul shot attempts per game measures as the 4th-worst in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Sacramento Kings may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the league).
Chet Holmgren should see a decline in production in all facets of the game on account of playing on the visting team in this game.

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