Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte Hornets · Mar 21, 2025

Updated Mar 22, 2025 2:59 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has converted 53.1% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 5.7% more than he's sunk over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. the Charlotte Hornets is a strong one for field goals; the other team's starting PFs have shot for the highest Field Goal% in the NBA this year (55.8%).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.
The Thunder are expected to see a spike in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the 10th-quickest pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 10 games (the Charlotte Hornets).
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has attempted and missed 1.1 foul shots per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.7 rate last season.
When it comes to drawing fouls, the Thunder's unimpressive 20.3 free throws per game ranks 4th-worst in the league this year.
The matchup against Charlotte is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game this year when the Hornets are away from home (3rd-least in the league).

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