Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 3/9/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 9, 2025

Updated Mar 9, 2025 5:04 PM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has put up 14.3 points per game while on his home court this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile -- among the league leaders in this category.
This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 44.8% on 3-pointers (5th-best in the league) vs. the Nuggets, labeling this as a good matchup.
The 3rd-fastest pace team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely see a rise in possessions in this contest from competing against the 5th-fastest pace-of-play offense in the league this year (the Denver Nuggets).
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

As a team, the Thunder have been lousy at getting to the free-throw line: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year, averaging just 19.9 foul shots per game.
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a measly 2.6 foul shots per game this year (least in the league).

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