Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/21/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Feb 21, 2025

Updated Feb 22, 2025 2:34 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren lands in the 79th percentile, averaging a whopping 14.7 points per game this year.
The matchup against Utah is a strong one; when the Utah Jazz are playing at home, they have allowed the most points per game in the league to the other team's starting PFs this year (24.0).
The Thunder rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Utah is a good one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted an enormous 5.6 foul shots per game this year when the Utah Jazz are at home (most in the league).

Favors Under

The 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play road team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Thunder.
The Jazz have played at the 9th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games with the home court advantage, which should reduce possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Chet Holmgren has failed to convert 1.2 free throws per game this season, a sizeable increase from his 0.7 mark last season.
In terms of getting to the free-throw line, the Thunder's subpar 19.7 free throw attempts per game ranks 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Chet Holmgren is expected to suffer a reduction in performance in all stat categories considering playing on the visting team in this game.

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