Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/7/2025

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 7, 2025

Updated Feb 8, 2025 12:49 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has registered 16.4 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA in this category: 83rd percentile.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have averaged 4.9 3-point attempts per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Raptors, identifying this as a strong matchup.
The 4th-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder will likely see an increase in opportunities today from facing the speediest pace visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Toronto Raptors).
The Thunder rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

When it comes to getting to the foul line, the Thunder's feeble 19.4 foul shots per game ranks 2nd-worst in the NBA this year.
The matchup against the Raptors may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 2.7 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (2nd-least in the NBA).

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