Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 11/10/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 10, 2024

Updated Nov 11, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has put up 18.2 points per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this standard: 87th percentile.
Chet Holmgren has converted 40.9% of his attempts from downtown this year, placing him in the 76th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
As it relates to offense, the Thunder's terrific 118.4 points per game comes in as the 5th-best in the league over the last 5 games.
The Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league this year.
The Thunder will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from competing against the 6th-fastest pace visiting team in the league this year (the Warriors).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Trayce Jackson-Davis is a difficult one for threes; when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year, they have totaled just 0.0 treys per game (6th percentile).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league when playing at home with a mere 7.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The matchup against Trayce Jackson-Davis is a challenging one for getting to the charity stripe; when defending other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a measly 2.7 foul shots per game (17th percentile).

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