Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/15/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 15, 2024

Updated May 16, 2024 1:41 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has successfully made 6.1 buckets per game this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among all players in the league.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 35.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.
In regard to offense, the Thunder's excellent 122.1 points per game as the home team places 2nd-most in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Daniel Gafford is a positive one for 3-pointers; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have converted a monstrous 35.1% of their shots from behind the three-point arc (100th percentile).
The Thunder have played at the 7th-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.3 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 83rd percentile -- among the league's most-whistled.
The Thunder are expected to experience a decrease in opportunities today from being pitted against the 4th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and spark added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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