Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 5/9/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks · May 9, 2024

Updated May 10, 2024 1:41 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has made 61.3% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 6.8% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year while on his home court.
Chet Holmgren has tallied 29.2 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 76th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
With respect to shooting, the Oklahoma City Thunder's stellar 122.3 points per game playing at home ranks 2nd-best in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied 16.0 field goal attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Mavericks, making this a favorable matchup.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Chet Holmgren slots into the 83rd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a colossal 2.3 fouls per game when playing at home this year.
The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the league over the last 10 games, which should decrease possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate more chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with just 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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