Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 4/21/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans · Apr 21, 2024

Updated Apr 22, 2024 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has registered 16.8 points per game when playing at home this year, putting him in the 84th percentile -- among the NBA's best by this metric.
Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren slots into the 82nd percentile for shooting ability with a superb 52.6% rate this year.
Chet Holmgren has played 29.1 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 75th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
In regard to scoring, the Thunder's superb 124.0 points per game places 2nd-strongest in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Jonas Valanciunas is a favorable one for field goals; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have converted an enormous 61.2% of their shot attempts from the field (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Pelicans have played at the 7th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games away from their home court, which ought to reduce possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with only 8.8 offensive boards per game this year.

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