Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 4/12/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 12, 2024

Updated Apr 13, 2024 12:03 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Chet Holmgren lands in the 84th percentile for shots from the field made while at home, logging an enormous 6.3 per game this year.
Chet Holmgren has been on the court for 29.6 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 77th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Thunder check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while at home.
The matchup against Brook Lopez is a positive one for shot attempts from the field; when Lopez is on the visiting team other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 12.9 shots made from the field per game (97th percentile).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The Bucks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The matchup vs. Brook Lopez is a difficult one for drawing fouls; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 2.4 foul shots per game (7th percentile).

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