Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 4/9/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Sacramento Kings · Apr 9, 2024

Updated Apr 10, 2024 12:12 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has sunk 6.2 shots made from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 29.9 minutes per game playing at home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
In terms of shooting, the Thunder's exceptional 122.9 points per game as the home team measures as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games as the home team.
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 4.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.6 higher than he's put through the net in all games this year while at home.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The matchup vs. Domantas Sabonis is a tough one; he has allowed just 12.9 points per game when squaring off against other starting Cs this year (7th percentile).
The Kings have played at the slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Thunder.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder rank 2ndworst in in the league with only 8.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The number of fouls drawn by fellow starting Cs against Domantas Sabonis has been quite low this year (2.4 foul shot attempts per game when they have the home court advantage: 10th percentile).

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