Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Apr 5, 2024

Updated Apr 5, 2024 11:17 PM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has compiled 16.3 points per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile -- among the league's best by this metric.
Chet Holmgren has tallied 29.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 80th percentile.
The Thunder have been the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely see an increase in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the speediest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Pacers).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
When on his home court and matched up against other starting Cs, Myles Turner has been in the 3rd percentile with a mere 1.1 three-pointers attempted against him per game this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs vs. Myles Turner has been quite low this year (3.0 foul shot attempts per game when they are playing at home: 20th percentile).
Chet Holmgren stands to experience a decrease in productivity in all stat categories in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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