Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 16, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has posted 20.4 points per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 3.7 higher than he's posted overall this year on the road.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 30.1 minutes per game while on the road this year, ranking in the 80th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
When it comes to offense, the Oklahoma City Thunder's stellar 119.8 points per game rates 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 5th-fastest pace in the league over the last 5 games on the road.
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 4.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.5 higher than he's converted over the course of the year while on the road.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (85th percentile).
The number of baskets sunk against Jaren Jackson Jr. has been very low (5.4 per game) when he is at home and guarding other starting Cs this year (10th percentile).
The Grizzlies have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 15 games at home, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren is expected to see a decline in performance for all stats in light of being on the road in this game.

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