Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets · Feb 27, 2024

Updated Feb 28, 2024 3:18 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has made 2.7 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's made from downtown over the course of the season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren comes in at the 77th percentile for playing time, putting up a colossal 30.2 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
This year, their opposition has shot 46.1% on field goal attempts (5th-worst in the league) vs. the Houston Rockets, creating a tough matchup.
The matchup against Alperen Sengun is a good one; he has given up a colossal 16.8 points per game away from home when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's been called for in all games this season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Rockets have given up the 4th-most offensive boards per game (13.0) in the league to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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