Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/6/2024

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Utah Jazz vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Feb 6, 2024

Updated Feb 7, 2024 4:06 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has attempted 5.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's attempted overall this year.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 30.2 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 79th percentile.
In terms of shooting, the Oklahoma City Thunder's excellent 120.4 points per game when playing away from home rates 3rd-most in the league over the last 20 games.
The Utah Jazz have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, which ought to increase possessions for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The matchup vs. John Collins is a strong one for drawing fouls; when Collins is playing at home opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a monstrous 4.8 free throws per game (97th percentile).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has averaged 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (82nd percentile).
The matchup against John Collins is a challenging one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when facing fellow starting Cs this year, they have sunk a mere 25.9% of their three-point attempts (7th percentile).
The 4th-least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with only 8.7 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 25 games, the other team has captured 11.2 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the NBA) against the Jazz (retaining possessions that can bring about extra chances for offense).