Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 5, 2024 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has logged 16.7 points per game this year, placing him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 84th percentile.
Chet Holmgren has played 29.9 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
As it relates to scoring, the Thunder's superb 120.6 points per game measures as the 4th-best in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Jakob Poeltl is a good one for 3-pointers; when squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have converted an enormous 46.1% of their three-pointers (100th percentile).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 7th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.4 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 81st percentile -- among the league's most foul-prone.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game this year.
Over the last 5 games when they are playing at home, the other team has grabbed 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Raptors (saving possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).
Chet Holmgren has made 50.4% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 23.3% less than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
The number of fouls drawn by other starting Cs vs. Jakob Poeltl has been remarkably low this year (2.8 free throw attempts per game: 21st percentile).