Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/31/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 31, 2024

Updated Feb 1, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-137/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has converted 53.9% of his shot attempts from the field this year, putting him in the 84th percentile among all players in the league.
Chet Holmgren has tallied 30.1 minutes per game on his home court this year, placing him in the 77th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The Thunder rank as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
This year when they are playing at home, opposing clubs have averaged 30.3 3-point attempts per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a challenging matchup.
The number of shots from the field against Aaron Gordon has been very high (11.2 per game) when guarding other starting Cs this year (90th percentile).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has averaged 2.5 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The 7th-most lethargic tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this contest from facing the slowest tempo visiting offense in the league over the last 10 games (the Denver Nuggets).
The Oklahoma City Thunder rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Denver Nuggets have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.6) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).