Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren rates in the 85th percentile for shots hit, posting a massive 6.4 per game this year.
Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren slots into the 77th percentile for playing time, totaling a colossal 30.1 minutes per game while at home this year.
When it comes to offense, the Thunder's excellent 125.7 points per game on their home court ranks 2nd-highest in the league over the last 15 games.
Over the last 10 games, opposing clubs have brought down 8.2 offensive boards per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves (shortening possessions that could otherwise bring about further chances for offense).
The matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; their opposition has attempted just 20.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Minnesota Timberwolves are away from home (4th-least in the league).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA (87th percentile).
The showdown with Rudy Gobert places in the 10th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs converting just 51.9% of their field goals this year.
The 10th-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Timberwolves have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Thunder.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and spark more chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game this year.