Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-157/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has sunk 6.1 buckets per game on the road this year, ranking in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league.
Out of all players in the league, Chet Holmgren rates in the 79th percentile for playing time, compiling a colossal 30.2 minutes per game this year.
In terms of scoring, the Oklahoma City Thunder's outstanding 121.9 points per game comes in as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
The Thunder have played at the 9th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.
Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.7 foul shots per game (24th-most in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has averaged 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from home, 1.0 higher than he's averaged overall this season on the road.
The matchup against New Orleans is a hard one for shot attempts from downtown; when the New Orleans Pelicans have the home court advantage, opposing starting PFs have tallied the 11th-least three attempts per game in the league this year (3.4).
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to see a decline in plays today from facing the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Pelicans).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create further chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing clubs have collected 11.6 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Pelicans (maintaining possessions that can create extra opportunities for offense).