Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 24, 2024

Updated Jan 25, 2024 3:53 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has successfully made 6.0 buckets per game while playing on the road this year, putting him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the league.
Among all players in the league, Chet Holmgren registers in the 79th percentile for playing time, putting up a massive 30.2 minutes per game this year.
With respect to scoring, the Thunder's outstanding 123.0 points per game ranks 2nd-highest in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The matchup with Victor Wembanyama registers in the 100th percentile with the opposing team's starting Cs burying a whopping 41.9% of their attempts from beyond the arc this year.
The Thunder have played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NBA this year.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has committed 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.2 more than he's committed overall this year on the road.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, their opposition has snagged 13.6 offensive rebounds per game (most in the NBA) against the Spurs (retaining possessions that can lead to bonus chances for offense).
This year when they are away from home, opposing squads have attempted 24.8 free throws per game (7th-most in the league) against the San Antonio Spurs, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.
Chet Holmgren will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city tends to lower stat production in all facets of the game.