Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 1/23/2024

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers · Jan 23, 2024

Updated Jan 24, 2024 2:54 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Chet Holmgren places in the 85th percentile, tallying an enormous 17.3 points per game this year.
Chet Holmgren has successfully made 55.1% of his shot attempts from the field this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Chet Holmgren has played 30.0 minutes per game at home this year, putting him in the 77th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
The Thunder rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 4th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games while on their home court.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.7 personal fouls per game when playing at home this year, placing him in the 88th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The matchup against Deandre Ayton is a hard one for threes; when Ayton is away from his home court and squaring off against other starting Cs this year, they have sunk a lowly 15.6% of their attempts from downtown (3rd percentile).
The Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing clubs have snagged 11.5 offensive rebounds per game (5th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers (preserving possessions that can generate additional opportunities for offense).

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