Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 29, 2023

Updated Dec 30, 2023 2:27 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -141 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has made 8.2 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games, 1.8 more than he's converted overall this season.
Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren measures in the 76th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 29.9 minutes per game this year.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 3rd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 25 games.
This year, opposing teams have tallied 11.2 3-pointers per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Nuggets, identifying this as a challenging matchup.
The Thunder have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the league over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

The rate of three-point shots scored against Nikola Jokic has been remarkably low (22.9%) when squaring off against fellow starting Cs this year (14th percentile).
The Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and result in extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the league with just 8.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Denver Nuggets have given up the 3rd-most offensive boards per game (12.3) in the league to opposing squads over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Nikola Jokic is a challenging one for drawing fouls; when Jokic is at home and guarding opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted just 2.1 free throws per game (17th percentile).