Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:08 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-165/+125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren places in the 77th percentile, averaging an enormous 15.2 points per game away from his home court this year.
Chet Holmgren has converted 51.6% of his field goal attempts on the road this year, placing him in the 79th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
As it relates to scoring, the Thunder's superb 123.1 points per game ranks 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets is a strong one for shots from the field; opposing starting Cs have averaged the 30th-most FG attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.4).
The Thunder have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game away from his home court this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- among the NBA's highest-fouling.
The Thunder will likely experience a decrease in opportunities today from competing against the 4th-least up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 8.5 offensive boards per game this year.
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 5th-most offensive boards per game (13.2) in the league to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against Denver may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted just 2.1 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Nuggets have the home court advantage (11th-least in the league).