Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has logged 17.1 points per game playing at home this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile -- among the league leaders by this metric.
The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA while playing on the road this year.
The Thunder have played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league over the last 10 games.
Out of all players in the league, Chet Holmgren places in the 86th percentile for free throws made, tallying a massive 3.4 per game this year.
Chet Holmgren will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home generally boosts player production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren measures in the 89th percentile for personal fouls, compiling a massive 2.9 fouls per game while playing on the road this year.
Since the start of last season, the other team's starting Cs have totaled 11.9 points per game (15th-lowest in the NBA) against the Utah Jazz, labeling this as a hard matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Utah Jazz have played at the 5th-slowest tempo in the league over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should decrease plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. Utah is a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.4 free throws per game since the start of last season when the Utah Jazz are on the road (14th-least in the league).