Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

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Chet Holmgren

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 2:15 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has attempted 14.6 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games while at home, 2.7 more than he's attempted over the course of the year at home.
Chet Holmgren has attempted 6.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 1.7 more than he's attempted overall this season at home.
The Thunder check in as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league away from home this year.
This year, the other team's starting Cs have tallied 6.8 field goals per game (30th-highest in the league) against the Mavericks, designating this as a favorable matchup.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 10th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games with the home court advantage.

Favors Under

The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 3rd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder grade out 1stworst in in the NBA while playing at home with a mere 7.9 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Without the home court advantage, the Dallas Mavericks have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.9) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren stands to suffer a drop-off in output for all stats due to playing on the visting team in this contest.

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