Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 1:32 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has scored 23.2 points per game over the last 5 games away from his home court, 5.1 higher than he's scored in all games this year on the road.
Chet Holmgren has converted 58.4% of his field goal attempts on the road this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Thunder have been the 5th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The 10th-fastest pace road offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Timberwolves have played at the 9th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to increase opportunities for the Thunder.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Timberwolves is a tough one for scoring; opposing starting Cs have averaged the 15th-least field goals per game in the league this year (4.7).
The Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league as the road team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 13.4 offensive boards per game (3rd-highest in the NBA) against the Minnesota Timberwolves (preserving possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense).
The matchup against the Timberwolves may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.4 free throws per game over the last 10 games (13th-least in the league).
Chet Holmgren is expected to suffer a reduction in output in all facets of the game considering playing away from hom in this game.