Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 1:43 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren rates in the 78th percentile for field goal efficiency at home with a a remarkable 52.3% rate this year.
In regard to offense, the Thunder's exceptional 117.5 points per game playing at home places 7th-best in the NBA this year.
The Thunder have played at the 5th-speediest tempo in the NBA this year.
Chet Holmgren has made 96.3% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 7.7% more than he's sunk in all games this season.
The matchup against Golden State is a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting Cs have attempted a monstrous 7.2 foul shots per game this year when the Golden State Warriors are playing at home (30th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Chet Holmgren registers in the 78th percentile for personal fouls, totaling a colossal 2.6 fouls per game without the home court advantage this year.
The matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors is a hard one for shots from behind the three-point arc; opposing starting Cs have averaged the 14th-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (0.8).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 1stworst in in the league when playing at home with only 6.8 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The Warriors have allowed the 10th-most offensive boards per game (11.2) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player performance in all stat categories.