Chet Holmgren Points - Player Prop Bet 11/10/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Nov 10, 2023

Updated Nov 11, 2023 3:23 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has sunk 62.5% of his attempts from beyond the arc on the road this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among all players in the league.
Chet Holmgren has averaged 27.5 minutes per game since the start of last season, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 76th percentile.
As it relates to scoring, the Oklahoma City Thunder's outstanding 118.8 points per game playing at home measures as the 7th-most in the NBA this year.
The 2nd-most up-tempo pace road team in the league this year has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The {OPP_TEAM} are expected to see an increase in opportunities today from squaring off against the 7th-fastest pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Kings).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has committed 3.0 personal fouls per game while on his home court since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled.
Since the start of last season, the opposing team's starting Cs have averaged 0.9 3-point attempts per game (15th-fewest in the NBA) against the Kings, labeling this as a difficult matchup.
The Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Kings is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.9 free throws per game since the start of last season (10th-least in the NBA).
Chet Holmgren ought to experience a decrease in performance across the board in light of being on the road in this game.