Chet Holmgren Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 1/10/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Chet Holmgren

C-F · Oklahoma City Thunder

Made 3 Point Shots

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 10, 2024

Updated Jan 11, 2024 3:30 AM EST

Analysis

Chet Holmgren Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Chet Holmgren has successfully made 2.4 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's made over the course of the season.
Chet Holmgren has tallied 29.7 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA.
In terms of treys, the Thunder's remarkable 39.4% rate of sunk threes settles in as the best in the NBA this year.
The Thunder have played at the 8th-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Over the last 25 games, their opposition has secured 8.9 offensive boards per game (fewest in the league) against the Miami Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise lead to more chances for offense).

Favors Under

Chet Holmgren has accumulated 2.4 personal fouls per game on the road this year, ranking in the 77th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The clash with Bam Adebayo registers in the 11th percentile with opposing starting Cs scoring just 20.8% of their three-point shots this year.
The Thunder will likely see a decline in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Heat).
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Chet Holmgren will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to decrease player production in all facets of the game.